The spot price of refined cobalt continues to rise, with high raw material costs leading to production cuts at some smelters. The price of cobalt salt may remain firm [Weekly Observation].

SMM April 25 News: This week, spot prices of cobalt products generally showed an upward trend. In the case of refined cobalt, due to the persistently high raw material prices, some smelters have already started to cut production... SMM has compiled the price changes of cobalt products this week, as follows: Refined cobalt: According to SMM spot price data, the spot price of refined cobalt showed an upward trend this week. As of April 25, the spot price of refined cobalt rose to 232,000-249,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 240,500 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from April 18, an increase of 0.21%. From the supply side, the social inventory of the refined cobalt market remains high, but the inventory structure is slightly different. On the supply side, due to the high raw material prices, the production economics of refined cobalt are poor, and the production enthusiasm of smelters is low, with some smelters cutting production. On the demand side, downstream producers' inquiries have slightly increased, but their willingness to stock up at high prices is not strong. It is expected that the price of refined cobalt will maintain a fluctuating trend next week. Cobalt salts (cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride): According to SMM spot price data, the spot price of cobalt sulphate also showed an upward trend this week. As of April 25, the spot price of cobalt sulphate rose to 48,550-50,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 49,375 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from April 18, an increase of 0.05%. From the supply side, the shortage of raw materials in some cobalt salt plants has slightly emerged, and the sentiment of holding back sales has slightly emerged, with the offer price slightly increased, but the actual transaction has not seen significant improvement. From the demand side, downstream producers generally hold a wait-and-see attitude towards new goods from salt plants, and some companies are still digesting old social inventory. It is expected that the short-term supply and demand situation will not improve significantly next week, and the spot price of cobalt sulphate may continue to fluctuate. In the case of cobalt chloride, according to SMM spot price data, the spot price of cobalt chloride also showed an upward trend this week. As of April 25, the spot price of cobalt chloride rose to 59,700-61,100 yuan/mt, with an average price of 60,400 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from April 18, an increase of 0.08%. From the fundamental perspective, on the supply side, raw material inventory is increasingly tight, and most producers refuse to sell at low prices, and the offer price has been raised accordingly. On the demand side, the just-in-time procurement of downstream Co3O4 manufacturers has driven high-level transactions, which in turn has driven the spot price to rise slightly. It is expected that next week, although the market activity is still not high, the sentiment of holding back sales of suppliers is still strong, and the price of cobalt chloride will continue to operate at a high level, and there is still some room for upward movement. Co3O4: According to SMM spot price data, the spot price of Co3O4 showed a downward trend this week. As of April 25, the spot price of Co3O4 remained at 203,000-217,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 210,250 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from April 18, a decrease of 0.12%. From the supply side, most smelters maintained their previous offers and did not make significant adjustments. The demand side was weak, and market activity was not high. Some manufacturers have completed the necessary procurement, and their acceptance of high-priced Co3O4 has declined, and trading activities have also decreased. Based on the current market dynamics and demand trends, it is expected that the price of Co3O4 will still face downward pressure next week. In terms of news, the import and export data of cobalt-related products this week were released. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of unwrought cobalt in March 2025 were about 525 mt (metal content), up 10.5% MoM and 135% YoY. In terms of the average import price, the average import price of unwrought cobalt in China in December 2024 was $19,711/mt (metal content), down 8.7% MoM. The cumulative imports from January to March 2025 were 1,499 mt (metal content), up 152.4% YoY. In terms of exports, China's exports of unwrought cobalt in March 2025 were about 1,353 mt (metal content), up 199% MoM and 37% YoY. In terms of the average export price, the average export price of unwrought cobalt in China in March 2025 was $24,255/mt (metal content), up 9% MoM. The cumulative exports from January to March 2025 were 68,412 mt (metal content), down 24.7% YoY. In terms of cobalt intermediate products, according to customs data, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in March 2025 were about 17,850 mt (metal content, converted at 35% grade), up 20.6% MoM and 5.6% YoY. In terms of the average import price, the average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in China in March 2025 was $12,351/mt (metal content). By country, the DRC remained the main importing country in March, with imports of about 17,600 mt (metal content, converted at 35% grade), an average import price of $12,374/mt (metal content), and an import share of about 98.5%. In terms of corporate dynamics, Tengyuan Cobalt recently released its investor activity record. Tengyuan Cobalt stated that as of the end of Q1 2025, the company had a capacity of 26,500 mt (metal content) of cobalt products, 10,000 mt (metal content) of nickel products, 10,000 mt (metal content) of manganese products, 5,000 mt of lithium carbonate, and 60,000 mt of copper products. In addition, Tengyuan Cobalt was also asked about the production and sales structure of cobalt products in 2024. Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the company's cobalt-related production lines are all flexibly designed and can flexibly adjust the production of various products according to changes in market demand. Overall in 2024, the recovery signal of the consumer electronics market was obvious. The company's cobalt products accounted for about 50% of cobalt chloride, nearly 40% of cobalt sulphate, and refined cobalt was basically at full production. The company also responded to the impact of the DRC's tight cobalt ore exports on the company's production and operation. Tengyuan Cobalt stated that on February 22, 2025, the DRC government issued a policy to suspend the export of cobalt ore (including intermediate products) from the DRC, effective immediately, for a period of 4 months. As of now, the policy is still strictly enforced, and no specific quota implementation measures have been introduced. The main purpose of this export ban is to boost the currently sluggish cobalt market. After the implementation of the ban, cobalt prices have shown an upward trend. It is expected that the DRC government will re-evaluate the effect of the ban in early May. In terms of production, the company has a certain amount of safety stock, and the pressure on raw materials is not significant. The company can obtain raw materials through the purchase of intermediate products and used batteries, and will purchase at the right time, quantity, and price according to the actual market situation in the future. At present, secondary resources are an important part of the company's strategic development, and good and close channel cooperation has been established both at home and abroad, which will serve as an important supplement to this raw material. When asked whether the selling price of cobalt products has been raised, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the company's cobalt product sales pricing mainly refers to the SMM cobalt product price and the London Metal Bulletin (MB) cobalt metal price, combined with the supply-demand relationship of cobalt products, competitor quotations, and the prices published by the non-ferrous metals network, to comprehensively determine the selling price. After the DRC ban, the SMM and MB cobalt metal prices have both risen, and the company's cobalt product sales are currently normal. When asked about the future expansion plan of cobalt, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the company's domestic factory currently has a capacity of 26,500 mt (metal content) of cobalt products. According to the company's strategy, the total domestic cobalt product capacity will reach 46,000 mt (metal content) in the future. The company plans to gradually expand production capacity according to the actual market situation. In 2025, in addition to fully releasing the existing cobalt product capacity, the company will prioritize the construction of a 5,000 mt refined cobalt project, and will gradually build Co3O4 expansion projects and fine chemical cobalt product projects.